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Donald Trump’s poll numbers have been improving, but the 2024 race against Kamala Harris is still too close to call with two weeks remaining.
The former president is now considered the slight favorite over Harris to win November’s election in two major polling aggregators and forecasting models for the first time, with three recent high quality polls showing Trump ahead nationally over Harris.
The vice president’s national average lead over Trump has also diminished in the last week.
The battle between Harris and Trump in the seven main swing states that could determine who wins the election remains a toss-up, with the pair either essentially tied or only marginally ahead across the board.
Harris’ clearest path to victory in November would be to win the three blue wall battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, barring any shock results elsewhere. Trump’s most efficient path to 270 Electoral College votes would be to win the Sun Belt swing states of North Carolina and Georgia and flip Pennsylvania.
Newsweek has contacted the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email.
National Averages
Harris’ current average national lead over Trump is 1.8 points (48.2 percent to 46.4), according to polling aggregator and forecaster 538.
This is a 0.6-point decrease from the average lead Harris had over Trump on October 15, when the election was three weeks away.
And 538 announced on October 18 that it is considering Trump the favorite to win the November 5 election over Harris for the first time since it published the presidential election forecast between these two candidates. The forecasting site currently gives Trump a 53 percent chance of victory, but added the race is still considered a toss-up.
“It’s important to remember that a [53]-in-100 chance for Trump is not all that different from a 58-in-100 chance for Harris—both are little better than a coin flip for the leading candidate,” 538’s G. Elliott Morris wrote. “While Trump has undeniably gained some ground over the past couple weeks, a few good polls for Harris could easily put her back in the ‘lead’ tomorrow.”
Trump also became the favorite to win the election over Harris for the first time in the Decision Desk HQ/The Hill’s forecast model on October 20. The model says Trump has a 52 percent chance of winning the presidency while Harris has a 48 percent chance.
Harris still has a 1.2-point national lead over Trump (49 percent to 47.8) in Decision Desk HQ/The Hill aggregation, but this is down 0.9 points from last week.
Pollster Nate Silver, who founded 538 and now uses a similar forecast model, gives Harris a national average poll lead over Trump of 1.6 points (48.8 percent to 47.2 percent) in his most recent update. Silver’s model also shows that Trump’s numbers have improved by 1.1 points compared to last week.
On October 20, Silver posted on his Silver Bulletin blog a “laundry list” of reasons why Trump may win November’s race. The 24 suggestions include the Electoral College vote favoring Republicans, voter perceptions about the economy damaging Harris, and Democrats losing key support among Black and other minority voters.
The national average from RealClearPolitics has Harris leading by 0.9 points (49.2 percent to 48.3 percent). On October 15, Harris’ lead was 1.6 points.
Swing States
According to 538, Harris is currently 0.3 points ahead in Wisconsin, 0.2 points ahead in Michigan and 0.3 points ahead in Nevada, meaning all three battleground states are essentially tied.
Trump leads by 0.3 points in Pennsylvania, 0.8 points in North Carolina, 1.5 points in Georgia and 1.9 points in Arizona.
Trump is on course to win the election with 281 Electoral College votes under 538’s current forecast, barring any shock results elsewhere.
Silver has Harris ahead in the blue wall states of Michigan and Wisconsin by 0.6 points, as well as 0.5 points in Nevada. Trump and Harris are tied on 48 percent in Pennsylvania.
Silver has Trump beating Harris on average in North Carolina (plus 1 point), Georgia (plus 1.3 points) and Arizona (plus 2 points). Trump has improved his polling averages in all seven swing states compared to last week.
RealClearPolitics has Trump ahead over Harris in all seven swing states.
The former president is ahead in Arizona by 1.8 points, Nevada by 0.7 points, Michigan by 1.2, Pennsylvania by 0.8 points, North Carolina by 0.5, Georgia by 1.8 points and by 0.4 points in Wisconsin.
Recent Polling
An TIPP Insights poll of 1,254 likely voters showed Trump with a 2-point lead over Harris, 49 percent to 47. The survey was carried out October 17-19 and the results have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 points.
A Quantus Insights National Survey national survey of 1,045 likely votes, conducted October 15-17, had Harris ahead by 49.4 percent to 48.6. The results have a margin or error of 3 percentage points.
A Fox News national survey of 1,110 registered voters, conducted October 11-14, revealed Trump had a 50 percent to 48 lead over Harris, The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
And an Atlas Intel poll of 4,180 likely voters showed Trump with a 2-point lead in a head-to-head matchup (50 percent to 48). The survey was conducted October 12-17, and has a margin of error or 2 percentage points.
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