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By National Correspondent
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Polls and forecasts show a close contest between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump as voters head to the polls on Election Day.

Both candidates on Monday made their final pitches to voters in events across swing states that are set to decide an election that will be historic no matter which candidate prevails.

Harris would be the first woman, first Black woman and first person of South Asian descent to be elected president if she defeats Trump. If Trump wins, he would be first incoming president to have been indicted and convicted of a felony, as well as the second president in history to win nonconsecutive White House terms.

Harris spent Monday campaigning in Pennsylvania—its 19 electoral votes make it the largest prize among the battleground states that are set to determine the winner of the Electoral College. Trump held rallies in North Carolina and Pennsylvania before ending his campaign with a rally in Grand Rapids, Michigan, on Monday night.

Newsweek has rounded up the latest polls and forecasts about the candidates’ chances of winning the White House.

POLLS

AtlasIntel

Trump was narrowly leading Harris, 50 percent to 49 percent, according to an AtlasIntel poll released on Monday.

The survey was conducted among 2,703 likely voters between November 3 and 4 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

NPR/PBS News/Marist

Harris had a four-point lead over Trump in the final national NPR/PBS News/Marist poll released on Monday.

The poll, which surveyed 1,297 likely voters between October 31 and November 2, saw 51 percent supporting Harris while 47 percent supported Trump. The result is outside the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Reuters/Ipsos

Harris was leading Trump by two points among likely voters, 50 percent to 48 percent, according to the Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Monday.

The survey was conducted among 973 likely voters between November 1 and 3 and has a margin of error of plus or minus two points among likely voters.

New York Times/Siena College

The final New York Times/Siena College poll of the 2024 election cycle showed Harris with marginal leads in the battleground states of Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin. Trump is ahead in Arizona, while they are locked in close races in Michigan, Georgia and Pennsylvania.

The poll surveyed 7,879 likely voters in the seven states from October 24 to November 2 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

ABC News/Ipsos

Harris was narrowly leading Trump—49 percent to 46 percent—in the final ABC News/Ipsos poll released on Sunday.

The poll surveyed 2,267 likely voters between October 29 and November 1 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

TIPP Insights

Trump had a very narrow lead—49 percent to Harris’ 48 percent—in a TIPP Insights poll released on Sunday.

The poll surveyed 1,305 likely voters between October 31 and November 3, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.

TIPP Insights was rated the most accurate pollster by The Washington Post in 2020.

Emerson College Polling

The final Emerson College Polling survey tied Trump and Harris with 49 percent each.

The survey was conducted between October 30 and November 2 among 1,000 likely voters and has a margin or error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

FORECASTS

FiveThirtyEight

FiveThirtyEight’s final forecast model predicts a close contest between Trump and Harris.

Harris wins 50 times out of 100, while Trump wins 49 times out of 100 based on 1,000 simulations, according to FiveThirtyEight’s final forecast, updated at 6 a.m. ET on Election Day.

The model, as of November 4, predicts that Harris will secure 270 votes in the Electoral College, while Trump will receive 268.

Decision Desk HQ

Decision Desk HQ and The Hill’s forecast, updated on Tuesday, gives Trump a 54 percent chance of winning the election and Harris 46 percent. The projection predicts Trump will secure 276 Electoral College votes, while Harris will get 262.

“Trump remains a slight favorite to win the 2024 election, though the outcome is effectively a toss-up,” said an analysis by Decision Desk HQ on October 28. “Neither candidate is clearly favored in enough states to secure the 270 electoral votes needed, with Trump currently at 235 and Harris at 226.”

Real Clear Polling

Real Clear Polling’s “no toss-up” map predicts Trump will triumph in the Electoral College, with 287 votes to Trump to Harris’ 251.

The model predicts Trump will crack the “blue wall” and carry battleground Pennsylvania as well as Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina. Harris is predicted to carry Michigan and Wisconsin.

Silver Bulletin

Statistician Nate Silver‘s final forecast slightly favored Harris as of Tuesday morning.

The vice president has a 50 percent change of winning of winning the Electoral College, while Trump has a 49.6 percent chance, according to a Substack post.

The change on Tuesday morning came after Monday’s forecast showed Trump was the favorite to win the election, with a 50.4 percent chance of winning the Electoral College to Harris’s 49.2 percent.

Trump is now projected to win in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Nevada, while Harris is predicted to take Michigan and Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania is virtually tied.

‘The Economist’

Harris has a narrow lead in The Economist‘s final forecast model, updated on Tuesday.

The model predicts Harris wins 56 in 100 times, while Trump wins 43 in 100 times.

Update 11/5/2024, 10:40 a.m. ET: This article has been updated to reflect the most up to date projection from Nate Silver.

Update 11/5/2024, 12:20 a.m. ET: This article has been updated to include details from AtlasIntel, NPR/PBS News/Marist and Reuters/Ipsos polls as well as the final forecasts from FiveThirtyEight, Decision Desk HQ and The Economist.

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